Introduction

Given the political landscape the candidate with the highest probability of becoming the new Prime Minister, should Michel Barnier’s government fall, is Bernard Cazeneuve. Here’s why:

Bernard Cazeneuve

Background: Former Socialist Prime Minister who served during François Hollande’s presidency.

Strengths:

Respected across the political spectrum.

Experienced in crisis management, having served as interior minister during the 2015 Paris attacks.

Considered by many commentators as the figure most likely to be named by Macron.

Factors Supporting Cazeneuve’s Candidacy

Broad Appeal: His experience and reputation could help build consensus across party lines, which is crucial given the fragmented nature of the National Assembly.

Crisis Management: With France facing political and economic challenges, Cazeneuve’s experience in handling crises could be valuable.

Centrist Alignment:

As a former Socialist, he could potentially bridge the gap between Macron’s centrist coalition and the left-wing parties.

Challenges for Bernard Cazeneuve

However, it’s important to note that his appointment is not guaranteed and faces some challenges:

The hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party has expressed opposition to Cazeneuve.

His selection could be seen as a step back from Macron’s promise of political renewal.

Other potential candidates mentioned in the search results include Xavier Bertrand and Thierry Beaudet, but they appear to have less support or recognition compared to Cazeneuve.

Conclusion

Given the complex political situation and the need for a figure who can navigate the divided parliament, Bernard Cazeneuve emerges as the most probable candidate for the role of Prime Minister if Macron’s government falls.