Can Trump Work With South Korea’s Left?

Introduction

The potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in 2025 raises significant questions about the future of U.S.-South Korea relations, particularly in light of recent political turmoil in South Korea. While initially it seemed that Trump might have found common ground with the conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol, Yoon’s attempted imposition of martial law and subsequent impeachment have dramatically altered the political landscape.

Shifting Political Dynamics

With Yoon’s presidency effectively over, South Korea is likely to see a shift back to left-leaning leadership. This change could present both challenges and opportunities for Trump’s approach to the Korean Peninsula:

North Korea Politics

Trump’s previous engagement with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was seen as a creative diplomatic initiative.

Left-leaning South Korean presidents have historically sought to establish relations with Pyongyang, potentially aligning with Trump’s inclination for direct diplomacy.

A progressive South Korean president might be more open to Trump’s approach of high-level engagement with North Korea, in contrast to Yoon’s harder line.

President Yoon Suk-yeol of South Korea has repeatedly avoided court summons and requests for questioning related to his short-lived declaration of martial law and subsequent impeachment.

This behavior has raised concerns about the president’s cooperation with legal proceedings and the potential impact on South Korea’s political stability.

Alliance Costs and Troop Presence

Trump has consistently pushed for allies to increase their defense spending and may seek to renegotiate the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) for cost-sharing.

A left-leaning South Korean government might be less inclined to meet Trump’s demands for increased payments, potentially leading to tensions over the U.S. military presence.

Potential Areas of Cooperation

Despite potential disagreements, there are areas where Trump and a left-leaning South Korean administration might find common ground:

Diplomatic Engagement

Both Trump and progressive South Korean leaders have shown a willingness to engage directly with North Korea, which could lead to a coordinated approach.

Trump’s unconventional diplomacy might align with the more engagement-oriented policies typically favored by South Korea’s left.

Economic Considerations

South Korea’s export-driven economy could be a point of mutual interest, although Trump’s protectionist tendencies might cause friction.

Challenges and Uncertainties

Several factors could complicate the relationship:

Leadership Vacuum

The current political instability in South Korea may hinder effective high-level engagement with the incoming Trump administration.

The lack of a fully elected government in Seoul during Trump’s transition could disadvantage South Korea in crucial policy discussions.

Alliance Strains

Trump’s “America First” policy and potential demands for increased defense spending could strain the alliance.

Questions about the U.S. commitment to South Korea’s security, including the nuclear umbrella, may resurface.

Conclusion

Potential areas of alignment exist between former President Trump and a left-leaning South Korean government, particularly concerning engagement with North Korea; however, significant challenges persist. The success of their cooperation will hinge on finding common ground on issues such as alliance costs, troop presence, and regional security strategies. The political uncertainty in South Korea adds a further layer of complexity to this evolving diplomatic landscape.

On the other hand, until South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's controversial attempt to consolidate power, there was at least one positive aspect in the forthcoming arrival of former President Donald Trump: both are contentious right-wing figures with authoritarian tendencies.

They appeared likely to have a personal rapport, potentially better matched than Trump and Moon Jae-in. Yoon was generally well-regarded by both parties in Washington, and a good personal relationship might have stabilized alliance relations.