Western bloc - Houthi escalation? End result
Introduction
Yemen’s history is marked by a series of foreign influences and internal conflicts. In the 1500s, parts of Yemen were absorbed into the Ottoman Empire, and in 1839, Aden came under British rule. North Yemen gained independence in 1918, leading to a series of civil wars and political changes, including the unification of North and South Yemen in 1990.
The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, are a Zaydi Shia group that emerged in the 1990s in northern Yemen.
Houthi history
The Houthi tribe, part of the Hamdanid Arab lineage, is based in northern Yemen, particularly in Saada and ‘Amran provinces. It originates from the Banu Hamdan tribe and has historical ties to Zaydi Shi’ism, a branch of Shia Islam. The Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), named after the tribe, emerged in the 1990s under Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi. Initially a religious revivalist group, it gained influence by opposing government corruption, Saudi-backed Salafism, and foreign intervention, eventually becoming a dominant political and military force in Yemen
They initially opposed President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s government, accusing it of corruption and foreign influence.
Their influence grew significantly after 2014 when they took control of Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, leading to a civil war. The Houthis have since expanded their military capabilities with support from Iran, making them a dominant force in Yemen
The Houthi movement initially gained support in northern Yemen by leveraging a Zaydi revivalist agenda that resonated with marginalized communities. In the 1990s, they opposed rising Saudi influence and anti-Zaydi policies, fostering tribal alliances and building social networks through education and religious programs. Government crackdowns, including sectarian rhetoric and indiscriminate violence, further alienated northern tribes, driving them to join the Houthis. The movement’s ability to exploit tribal solidarity, charismatic leadership, and grievances against the central government allowed it to consolidate power and expand its influence.
What led to Houthi movement
The Houthi rebellion against the Yemeni government stemmed from several key factors
Cultural and Religious Marginalization
The Houthis, a Zaydi Shia group, opposed the growing influence of Saudi-backed Salafi Islam, which they felt threatened their cultural and religious identity.
Government Corruption and Inequality
They criticized widespread corruption, economic mismanagement, and lack of accountability in the Yemeni government, which resonated with broader public grievances.
Political Exclusion
The Houthis sought greater autonomy for northern Yemen and opposed decisions like Saudi Arabia’s backing of President Hadi after the Arab Spring, which excluded them from power.
These grievances fueled their insurgency starting in 2004.
Houthi-led protests in 2014
Fuel Subsidy Removal
The Yemeni government’s decision to cut fuel subsidies in July 2014, under IMF pressure, led to soaring fuel prices, sparking widespread public anger.
Corruption and Governance Issues
The Houthis criticized President Hadi’s government for corruption and failing to address economic hardships, gaining support beyond their base.
Political Exclusion
The Houthis demanded a new government and reforms, accusing Hadi of favoring rivals like the Islah Party.
These protests escalated into the takeover of Sanaa in September 2014.
Houthi religious beliefs
The Houthi movement’s religious beliefs significantly influenced their political agenda by intertwining Zaydi Shi’ism with political objectives. Initially a religious revivalist group, the Houthis evolved into a political force by emphasizing Zaydi identity and opposing Wahhabism, which they viewed as a threat from Saudi Arabia.
They leveraged religious narratives to justify governance and consolidate power, promoting a theocratic state model where leadership is tied to Hashemite lineage, believed to be descendants of the Prophet Muhammad. This religious-political fusion helped them mobilize support and expand their influence across Yemen.
What were key mistakes made by Yemen government
Key government mistakes that contributed to the Houthi movement’s growth include:
Sectarian Alienation: The Yemeni government alienated Zaydi communities by promoting anti-Zaydi policies and rhetoric, including desecration of Zaydi shrines and labeling them as “Safavid Shiites”.
Heavy-Handed Tactics: Indiscriminate use of artillery and airstrikes in Houthi areas fueled tribal solidarity and recruitment into the movement.
Economic Grievances: The removal of fuel subsidies in 2014 under IMF pressure sparked protests that the Houthis capitalized on, gaining broader support.
Political Exclusion: The government marginalized northern tribes and failed to integrate the Houthis into political processes, exacerbating tensions.
Fall of Houthi - Saleh alliance
The collapse of the Houthi-Saleh alliance has significant implications for Yemen’s future. It has led to a power vacuum and increased fragmentation within the country, complicating efforts for a political resolution. The Houthis have lost a major ally in Saleh, which may weaken their political cover and stability in northern Yemen. This collapse could lead to intensified infighting among Saleh’s former supporters and the General People’s Congress, further destabilizing the region. Additionally, the Saudi-led coalition’s strategy may need reevaluation, as they have lost a potential partner against the Houthis.
Fall of Yemen government
The Yemeni government effectively fell in September 2014 when the Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa, following weeks of protests over fuel subsidy cuts and government corruption. The situation escalated in January 2015, when Houthi forces took control of the presidential palace, prompting President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi and his government to resign. By February 2015, the Houthis dissolved parliament and established a Revolutionary Committee, consolidating their power and marking the collapse of Yemen’s central government.
Houthi movement
The Houthi movement’s anti-imperialist stance has significantly shaped its political agenda by framing its struggle as resistance against foreign domination, particularly by the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel. This narrative, influenced by Iran’s revolutionary ideology, has allowed the Houthis to position themselves as defenders of Yemeni sovereignty and justice. Their slogans, such as “Death to America” and “Death to Israel,” resonate with anti-imperialist sentiments, helping them mobilize support domestically and internationally among groups critical of Western influence. This stance also justifies their opposition to Saudi-led interventions and aligns them with Iran’s regional “Axis of Resistance”
These interventions have prolonged the conflict and worsened Yemen’s humanitarian crisis.
UN brokered deal
The UN-brokered deal signed between the Houthis and the Yemeni government on September 21, 2014, was called the Peace and National Partnership Agreement (PNPA). Its key terms included:
Formation of a Unity Government
The agreement called for a government inclusive of all political factions, including the Houthis.
Economic Reforms
Addressing grievances like fuel subsidy cuts to alleviate public discontent.
Houthi Withdrawal
The Houthis agreed to withdraw from Sanaa and other occupied areas.
Increased Houthi Representation
Expanding their role in state institutions and parliament.
However, the agreement’s implementation faltered, leading to further conflict.
Houthi’s capabilities
The Houthis’ military capabilities significantly impact the conflict’s outcome in Yemen.
They possess advanced weaponry, including ballistic and cruise missiles, drones, and anti-ship missiles, largely supported by Iran. Their ability to target regional adversaries, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, enhances their strategic position and resilience.
Despite international efforts to curb their capabilities, the Houthis have demonstrated adaptability and persistence, complicating efforts to achieve a decisive military resolution.
Their ongoing operations continue to pose a significant challenge to regional stability and peace efforts.
International role in strengthening Houthi’s?
International powers have played a significant role in the Houthi rebellion, influencing its trajectory and the broader Yemen conflict:
Iran’s Support: Iran has provided the Houthis with weapons, training, and financial aid, enabling their military expansion. While not directly controlling the Houthis, Iran views them as part of its regional “Axis of Resistance” against Saudi Arabia and the U.S.
Iran’s support has profoundly influenced the Houthi rebellion’s military strategy by transforming them from a localized group into a potent military force. Iran has provided advanced weaponry, including ballistic missiles, drones, and anti-ship systems, as well as technical expertise through the IRGC and Hezbollah. This support has enabled the Houthis to strike deep into Saudi territory, disrupt Red Sea maritime traffic, and maintain military superiority within Yemen. Iranian backing has also enhanced their ability to project power regionally, aligning with Tehran’s broader geopolitical goals
Saudi-led Coalition
Saudi Arabia, perceiving the Houthis as an Iranian proxy, launched a military campaign in 2015 to restore Yemen’s internationally recognized government. This coalition, supported by Western nations like the U.S. and U.K., has intensified the conflict through airstrikes and blockades.
Western Involvement
The U.S., U.K., and other allies have backed Saudi efforts for strategic reasons, such as securing shipping routes and countering Iranian influence. However, they have faced criticism for enabling civilian casualties through arms sales and logistical support.
Yemens future - Short term
Yemen’s future remains uncertain due to its complex relationships with Israel, the U.S., and Saudi Arabia, as well as the entrenched Houthi movement.
Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have sought de-escalation, but the Houthis retain significant power, controlling key regions and resisting compromise.
Unlike Hamas, the Houthis are deeply embedded in Yemen’s political and military fabric, making outright eradication unlikely without catastrophic consequences for civilians.
Regional dynamics, including Saudi-Israeli normalization efforts, could influence Yemen’s trajectory but are unlikely to directly resolve the conflict.
Yemen future - long term
The future of the Houthis in Yemen is uncertain and depends on various factors, including political dynamics, regional influences, and ongoing conflicts. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have established significant control in northern Yemen, particularly in the capital, Sana'a. Their future will likely be influenced by the following elements
Political Negotiations
The potential for peace talks and political agreements among Yemeni factions, including the Houthis, the Yemeni government, and various regional powers, will play a crucial role in determining their future.
International Influence
No one has a crystal ball but no doubt based on similar pattern we can review some predictions.
The involvement of countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and others in the Yemeni conflict will continue to impact the Houthis' position.
Shifts in international support or opposition could alter their strength and negotiating power.
Humanitarian Situation
The ongoing humanitarian crisis in Yemen, exacerbated by the conflict, may force all parties to reconsider their strategies and seek a resolution to alleviate suffering.
Internal Dynamics
The Houthis' ability to maintain support among their base and adapt to the changing political landscape within Yemen will also be critical. Popular support can fluctuate based on various factors, including governance and economic conditions.
Overall, while the Houthis currently hold significant power in Yemen, their future will depend on a complex interplay of local, national, and international dynamics. The situation remains fluid, and developments can change rapidly.
Conclusion
There is a strong ongoing conflict going on by US and allies who are attempting to defend their national interest and minimize or eradicate risk of trade in Red Sea.
There has been strikes from Houthi directly on Israel which even Iron dome and US thaad missle could not detect. It has caused damages
US has conducted air strikes on Houthi military bases in Yemen. It not sure how far those targets have affected Houthi mobilization. There is a considerable risk to civilians as Houthi’s are deeply entrenched in every aspect of Yemens culture
Only a deescalation or a full military operation from US or NATO is only solution.
The consequences will be Yemen would become Gaza2.0.
Another thousands or may be millions citizen with Houthi will be killed.
Saudi led collation tried to bring down Houthi regime also failed with ceasefire.
The Saudi-led military intervention in Yemen began on March 26, 2015, under “Operation Decisive Storm,” and transitioned to “Operation Restoring Hope” on April 22, 2015. While large-scale hostilities have decreased, the intervention has not officially ended and remains ongoing as of December 2024, with Saudi Arabia pursuing ceasefire talks with the Houthis to end its military involvement
The best solution without escalating further and harm to humanitThere exists a significant conflict involving the United States and its allies, who are endeavoring to safeguard their national interests while seeking to mitigate or eliminate the risks associated with trade in the Red Sea.
Recent hostilities have included direct strikes from the Houthi faction targeting Israel, which have evaded detection by the Iron Dome and the U.S. THAAD missile defense systems. These attacks have resulted in considerable damage. In response, the United States has executed airstrikes on Houthi military installations in Yemen; however, the extent to which these operations have impacted Houthi mobilization remains uncertain. There is a substantial risk to civilian populations, as the Houthis are deeply integrated into various facets of Yemeni culture.
A viable resolution to this situation may involve either de-escalation or a comprehensive military operation conducted by the United States or NATO.
Absent such measures, Yemen risks becoming a situation analogous to Gaza, with the potential for thousands, if not millions, of citizens associated with the Houthi movement to lose their lives.
The Saudi-led coalition's efforts to dismantle the Houthi regime have similarly been met with limited success, resulting in a failed ceasefire.
The military intervention spearheaded by Saudi Arabia in Yemen commenced on March 26, 2015, under the moniker “Operation Decisive Storm,” and subsequently transitioned to “Operation Restoring Hope” on April 22, 2015.
While large-scale hostilities have diminished, the intervention has not officially concluded and remains active as of December 2024, with Saudi Arabia engaged in ceasefire negotiations with the Houthis to terminate its military involvement.
It is imperative that, to alleviate the humanitarian impact of this conflict, the United Nations facilitate negotiations, with the assistance of allies, aimed at influencing the Houthis to reach a ceasefire agreement.
There is a consensus that neither the Western bloc nor the Houthis desires the complete destruction of the human population in Yemen.
It is believed not all conflicts are won by military action but a diplomatic resection is needed at this point.
