Introduction

Given the complex history of foreign involvement in Libya, it’s difficult to definitively state whether the country would be “more safe” under Russian or American protection.

Both nations have pursued their own strategic interests in Libya, often at the expense of Libyan stability and security. However, we can examine the impacts of their involvement:

US Involvement

The US played a significant role in the 2011 NATO intervention that led to Gaddafi’s downfall

The intervention was initially justified as a humanitarian mission to protect civilians.

However, it quickly expanded beyond its original mandate, leading to regime change.

After Gaddafi’s fall, the US largely disengaged from Libya, leaving a power vacuum.

The aftermath of the intervention has been problematic

Libya experienced political fragmentation and ongoing conflict.

The country saw a rise in militant groups, including ISIS.

Economic instability and loss of oil revenues have plagued the country.

Russian Involvement

Russia has increased its presence in Libya in recent years, primarily through support for General Khalifa Haftar:

The Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, has established a significant presence in Libya.

Russia has provided military support to Haftar’s forces, including weapons and mercenaries.

Moscow has sought to gain control over strategic resources and key geographic areas in Libya.

Russian involvement has had mixed effects

It has contributed to the ongoing conflict by supporting one faction against the internationally recognized government.

Russia’s presence has complicated international efforts to stabilize Libya.

However, it has also provided some stability in areas under Haftar’s control.

Comparative Safety

Neither US nor Russian involvement has led to comprehensive safety and stability in Libya. However:

The US-led intervention, while removing a dictator, led to prolonged instability and conflict.

Russian involvement, while providing some stability in certain areas, has perpetuated division and conflict.

Conclusion

Libya’s safety and stability are likely to depend more on internal reconciliation and the development of strong, inclusive institutions rather than on the protection of any foreign power. Both US and Russian involvement have been driven primarily by their own strategic interests rather than the welfare of the Libyan people