Introduction

Egypt has indeed lent significant military backing to Somalia and Eritrea in their disputes with Ethiopia, forming a strategic alliance aimed at countering Ethiopian influence in the Horn of Africa. This trilateral partnership has emerged as a response to several key developments:

Egypt-Somalia Military Cooperation

Egypt has dramatically increased its military support to Somalia in recent months:

In August 2024, Egypt and Somalia signed a bilateral defense cooperation agreement.

Egypt reportedly deployed 1,000 soldiers to Mogadishu in late August 2024.

At least two arms shipments, including ammunition, artillery, and other weaponry, have been sent from Egypt to Somalia since August 2024.

Egypt is set to contribute approximately 5,000 troops to the new African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) starting in January 2025.

This military assistance is seen as a direct response to Ethiopia’s port deal with Somaliland, which Somalia views as a violation of its territorial integrity.

Trilateral Alliance Formation

On October 10, 2024, the presidents of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia held a summit in Asmara, Eritrea, where they:

Formalized their anti-Ethiopian alliance.

Agreed to enhance security cooperation in the Red Sea and Bab al Mandab Strait.

Established a trilateral joint committee to oversee strategic cooperation on military, diplomatic, and economic fronts.

Motivations Behind the Alliance

Egypt’s Concerns

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which Egypt sees as a threat to its water security.

Preventing Ethiopia from gaining Red Sea naval access.

Somalia’s Grievances

Ethiopia’s port deal with Somaliland, which Somalia considers a violation of its sovereignty.

Desire to bolster its military capabilities against internal and external threats.

Eritrea’s Interests

Longstanding tensions with Ethiopia, despite a 2018 peace agreement.

Concerns over Ethiopian influence in the Red Sea region.

Implications

This alliance represents a significant shift in regional dynamics, potentially:

Altering the balance of power that has favored Ethiopia for decades.

Increasing the risk of conflict between Egyptian and Ethiopian forces in Somalia.

Challenging Ethiopia’s regional ambitions and access to the Red Sea.

Conclusion

By providing military support to Somalia and aligning with Eritrea, Egypt is actively working to create a counterbalance to Ethiopia’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa. This strategic move not only addresses Egypt’s concerns over the GERD but also supports its allies’ territorial and security interests in the region.