What is the probability François Bayrou would be successful in getting the new budget passed? If not? What next?

Introduction

François Bayrou faces significant challenges in getting the new budget passed, with a relatively low probability of success in the near term. However, there are potential paths forward if he fails to secure immediate approval.

Francois Bayrou qualifications

François Bayrou brings a wealth of political experience and centrist credentials that could potentially contribute to his success as France’s new Prime Minister:

Political Experience

Longevity in Politics: Bayrou has been a prominent figure in French politics for over four decades, giving him extensive knowledge of the political landscape.

Government Experience: He served as Education Minister from 1993 to 1997, providing him with valuable cabinet-level experience.

Parliamentary Experience: Bayrou has been a member of the National Assembly and the European Parliament, familiarizing him with legislative processes.

Centrist Position

Bridging Political Divides: As the leader of the centrist Democratic Movement (MoDem), Bayrou is well-positioned to negotiate between left and right factions.

Alliance with Macron: His long-standing support for Macron since 2017 ensures a strong working relationship with the President.

Third Way Approach: Bayrou describes himself as a “Clintonian” and a proponent of the “third way,” potentially appealing to a broad political spectrum.

Personal Qualities

Respected Figure: Bayrou commands respect across the political spectrum, which could help in building coalitions.

Rural Roots: His background in farming and knowledge of rural issues could resonate with a significant portion of the French population.

Intellectual Background: As a former teacher of classical languages, Bayrou brings an intellectual dimension to his political approach.

While these factors could contribute to Bayrou’s potential success, he still faces significant challenges, including a fragmented parliament and the need to navigate complex political alliances to pass legislation.

Probability of Success

The likelihood of Bayrou successfully passing a new budget in the short term appears low, for several reasons

Political Fragmentation

France is experiencing deep political divisions, with Macron’s centrist coalition facing strong opposition from both far-left and far-right factions in parliament.

Tight Timeline

Bayrou must present his budget proposal before December 21, leaving little time for negotiations and consensus-building.

Fiscal Challenges

France’s budget deficit is estimated at over 6% of GDP, double the EU limit, requiring significant and potentially unpopular fiscal measures.

Previous Failure

Bayrou’s predecessor, Michel Barnier, was ousted after just three months when his proposed budget with €60 billion in tax increases and spending cuts was rejected.

Potential Outcomes

If Bayrou fails to pass a new budget, several scenarios could unfold:

Budget Extension

The most likely immediate outcome is the extension of the 2024 budget into 2025. This approach would allow the government to continue collecting existing taxes and maintain current spending levels.

Fiscal Continuity Law

The government could enact a “fiscal continuity law” to prevent a shutdown, enabling tax collection and salary payments while keeping spending aligned with 2024 figures.

Delayed Budget Approval

Eurasia Group suggests a 60% probability that Bayrou could have a narrow window to enact a 2025 budget in the early months of 2025, potentially based on a modified version of Barnier’s budget to attract support from moderate left factions.

Increased Deficit

Without a new budget, France could face a deficit of up to 6.6% of GDP in 2025, further straining its fiscal position.

Political Negotiations

Bayrou may attempt to engage with members of the left-wing New Popular Front alliance to avoid another no-confidence motion and facilitate an agreement on the 2025 budget.

Potential Early Elections

If Bayrou fails to secure support, there’s a possibility of early legislative elections, though this would likely not occur before July 2025.

Conclusion

Bayrou faces significant obstacles, his experience and potential for compromise may provide a path forward. However, the political landscape remains highly uncertain, and the outcome will depend on his ability to navigate France’s complex parliamentary dynamics.