Introduction

The recent cease-fire deal between the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed rebels in Manbij, Syria, has unfortunately failed. Here’s an overview of the situation

History

US troops in Syria are primarily stationed in the northeast and eastern parts of the country, with no presence near Manbij.

The US has approximately 900 troops deployed in Syria, mainly to support Kurdish forces against ISIS remnants.

Recent clashes in Manbij have been between Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

While the US has been involved in mediating ceasefires and diplomatic efforts, there is no mention of US forces being physically present in Manbij during the recent conflicts

Initial Cease-fire Agreement

Some key figures involved in the recent negotiations and events include:

Mazloum Abdi: The commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) who announced the initial US-brokered ceasefire agreement in Manbij.

General Michael Kurilla: The chief of US Central Command who visited US bases and SDF partners in Syria shortly before the ceasefire was announced.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan: The President of Turkey, who has been a key figure in Turkey’s involvement in northern Syria.

Antony Blinken: The US Secretary of State, who has been involved in diplomatic efforts regarding Syria.

It’s important to note that while there was initially a US-brokered ceasefire agreement announced on December 10, 2024, this agreement has since collapsed. As of December 16, 2024, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army ended the ceasefire, and negotiations between the SDF and SNA have failed.

The key points of this agreement

The SDF-affiliated Manbij Military Council would withdraw from the area.

The goal was to ensure safety and start a political process for Syria’s future.

SDF commander Mazloum Abdi stated, “We have reached a ceasefire agreement in Manbij via US mediation”.

Collapse of the Cease-fire

Unfortunately, the cease-fire was short-lived. By December 16, 2024, multiple sources reported that the agreement had collapsed:

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) ended the cease-fire.

Negotiations between the SDF and SNA failed.

Significant military buildups were observed near the Kurdish town of Kobani.

Reasons for Failure

The SDF cited several reasons for the failure of the truce:

Turkey’s “evasion to accept key points”.

Continued escalation by Turkey and its allied militias.

Inability to ensure safe transfer of civilians and Manbij fighters.

Consequences of fall of ceasefire agreement

The failure of the ceasefire deal between the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed forces in Syria could have several significant consequences:

Escalation of Conflict

Renewed Turkish Offensive: Turkey may launch a large-scale attack on Ain al-Arab/Kobani, as tensions have increased following the collapse of the ceasefire.

Increased Violence: The situation could lead to more clashes between Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and the SDF, potentially resulting in civilian casualties and displacement.

Strategic Implications

Weakened SDF Position

The SDF is now more vulnerable to Turkish attacks, especially with Russia’s withdrawal from bases in northern Syria.

Disruption of Counter-ISIS Operations

The SDF’s focus on defending against Turkish-backed forces may hinder their ability to conduct operations against ISIS, potentially allowing the terrorist group to regain strength.

Threat to Key Facilities

The SDF’s capacity to secure critical facilities like the al-Hol camp, which houses ISIS supporters and fighters, may be compromised.

Regional Dynamics

Increased Turkish Influence

Turkey’s strategic objective to “destroy” the SDF may lead to a significant shift in the balance of power in northern Syria.

Humanitarian Crisis

Continued conflict could exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation in the region, leading to more displacement and suffering.

US-Turkey Relations

Strained Alliance

The failure of the ceasefire could further complicate the relationship between the US and Turkey, both NATO allies with divergent interests in Syria.

Diplomatic Challenges

The US may face difficulties in mediating between its NATO ally Turkey and its partner in counter-ISIS operations, the SDF.

International Response

Diplomatic Efforts

The situation may prompt renewed international diplomatic initiatives to stabilize the region and prevent further escalation.

Humanitarian Aid

There could be an increased need for international humanitarian assistance in the affected areas.

These potential consequences highlight the complex and volatile nature of the situation in northern Syria, with significant implications for regional stability and US foreign policy objectives.

Broader Context

This failed cease-fire occurs in the wake of significant changes in Syria:

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024.

Increased Turkish influence in Syria.

Ongoing tensions between Turkey and Kurdish forces, whom Turkey views as affiliated with the PKK.

Conclusion

The situation remains volatile, with the SDF now in a more isolated position and facing challenges to its survival in the region. There is no doubt Turkey cannot be trusted. They backed HTS and may back ISIS also to further weaken or diminish Kurdish fighters.