Introduction

Recent developments in Syria have significantly altered the dynamics between Turkey and Russia, leading to speculation about Turkey’s alleged betrayal of Russia. While the situation is complex, several key points suggest a shift in the relationship. Knowing how Kremlin works Turkey has taken a big risk to get a small share of Syria. Russia is very powerful nation and Turkey’s diplomatic relations with EU and US are not best for economic standpoint. Turkey is banking heavily on Middle East especially Saudi Arabia.

Regime Change in Syria

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, which was supported by Russia, has been a game-changer. This event has:

Removed a significant source of Russian leverage over Turkey

Shifted the power dynamic in favor of Ankara

Led to Russia reportedly asking Turkey for assistance in withdrawing its troops from Syria

Turkey’s Actions

Turkey’s role in recent events has been viewed by some as a betrayal of Russia:

Turkey allegedly helped overthrow the Assad regime and supported rebels in the Syria civil war

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s actions have been seen as aligning with Israel and Western interests

Russian Perspective

Russian political figures and analysts have expressed frustration with Turkey’s actions:

Aleksandr Dugin, a Russian philosopher often associated with Putin’s thinking, called Turkey’s behavior a “strategic mistake”

Dugin warned that Russia might not come to Turkey’s aid in future troubles

Russian analysts see Turkey’s involvement with groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as potentially unstable and risky

Changing Power Dynamics

The situation has led to a recalibration of the Turkey-Russia relationship:

Russia’s influence in the region has diminished, while Turkey’s has grown

Turkey now has more leverage in areas such as energy transit and diplomacy

The relationship has shifted from one of competition to a more complex, nuanced partnership

Conclusion

Its important to note that despite these changes, Turkey and Russia continue to maintain significant economic and diplomatic ties. The relationship remains complex, with both countries still finding areas of cooperation amidst their diverging interests. Russia is very critical for Turkey for Tourism. Erdogan will hav to play very safe now as being a NATO member, he still supports Russia.

if new sanctions come towards Russia, it would be hard for Turkey to balance growth in economic from tourism.

The GDP contribution from travel and tourism is expected to reach almost 12.5% of Turkey’s economy.

Tourism revenues are projected to increase to $59.6 billion in 2024, up from the record $54.32 billion achieved in 2023.

In 2024 Russia contributed $7 billion in revenue, which is quite substantial.