Introduction

There is evidence to suggest that China is involved in proxy warfare in Somaliland, primarily due to Somaliland’s recognition of Taiwan and its strategic location in the Horn of Africa.

China’s Motivations and Actions

China’s involvement in Somaliland appears to be driven by several factors:

Taiwan Recognition

Somaliland is one of only two African states that recognize Taiwan rather than the People’s Republic of China. This has led to Beijing attempting to pressure Somaliland into severing ties with Taiwan.

Strategic Location

Somaliland’s position on the Red Sea coast and its potential for oil exploration make it a valuable geopolitical asset.

Competition with Western Interests

China seeks to counter Western influence in the region, particularly as Somaliland has developed closer ties with the United States and other Western nations.

Evidence of Proxy Warfare

Several actions and events suggest China’s involvement in proxy warfare in Somaliland:

Las Anod Conflict

The outbreak of violence in Las Anod, a city in eastern Somaliland, is believed to be a proxy conflict instigated by China. This conflict appears to be aimed at punishing Somaliland for its recognition of Taiwan.

Support for Armed Groups

China has allegedly supported armed groups seeking to secede from Somaliland, particularly in the eastern regions.

Economic Pressure

Chinese businesses abruptly withdrew from Somaliland following the establishment of ties with Taiwan, creating economic gaps.

Diplomatic Maneuvering

China has attempted to lure Somaliland with promises of infrastructure development, conditional on severing ties with Taiwan.

Interference in Military Exercises

Beijing reportedly orchestrated efforts to thwart U.S. military exercises in Somaliland, including the cancellation of the Justified Accord 2023 drill.

Regional Implications

China’s actions in Somaliland have broader implications for the Horn of Africa:

Ethiopia-Somaliland Deal

The recent maritime agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland has further complicated the geopolitical landscape, with China likely viewing this as a challenge to its interests in the region.

Somalia-Egypt Alliance

In response to the Ethiopia-Somaliland deal, Egypt has strengthened its military ties with Somalia, potentially creating a proxy battleground between regional powers.

U.S. Response

The United States has shown a cautious approach to the situation, with different branches of government holding varying views on Somaliland’s strategic importance.

While China maintains a publicly neutral stance on the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal, its actions suggest a more active role in shaping regional dynamics, particularly in opposition to Somaliland’s ties with Taiwan and Western powers.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the evidence strongly suggests that China is engaged in proxy warfare in Somaliland, using a combination of economic, diplomatic, and covert means to advance its interests and counter Western influence in this strategically important region.