Is adwal and Khatumo state failure of MOU between Ethiopia and Somaliland Naval base?

Introduction

The emergence of Awdal and Khatumo states does indeed pose significant challenges to the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Ethiopia and Somaliland regarding the naval base deal, though it’s not accurate to call it a complete failure yet. Here’s an analysis of how these states impact the agreement:

Awdal State

Protests have erupted in Awdal region, which would host the sea access granted to Ethiopia.

Members of the Issa clan, one of Somaliland’s founding clans, organized demonstrations against the MoU in Lugahey and Saylac.

The Awdal State Movement (ASM) was established in September 2023, aiming to break away from Somaliland and support Somalia’s unity.

Khatumo State (SSC-Khatumo)

In August 2023, Khatumo forces effectively expelled Somaliland troops from Dhulbahante territory, securing most of their claimed area.

The Somali federal government recognized SSC-Khatumo as a “transitional administration” in October 2023, further complicating Somaliland’s territorial claims.

Impact on the MoU

Territorial Challenges

The emergence of these states challenges Somaliland’s territorial integrity and its ability to deliver on the promised 20 km of coastline to Ethiopia.

Awdal’s protests directly threaten the proposed location for Ethiopia’s naval base.

Political Legitimacy

Both Awdal and Khatumo states’ unionist tendencies undermine Somaliland’s claim to independence, which is a key aspect of the MoU with Ethiopia.

The recognition of SSC-Khatumo by the Somali federal government further weakens Somaliland’s position.

Regional Dynamics

Djibouti’s engagement with both SSC-Khatumo and ASM represents a strategic move to protect its interests in response to the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU.

This shift in regional dynamics could potentially undermine the implementation of the naval base deal.

Conclusion

While these developments pose significant challenges to the Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU, it’s premature to declare it a complete failure. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential for negotiations. However, the emergence and actions of Awdal and Khatumo states have undoubtedly complicated the implementation of the naval base deal and highlighted the complex political landscape in the region.