Introduction

Based on the recent developments, it appears that the deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland is likely to fall through, although it has not been officially canceled yet. Several factors point to this conclusion:

Turkey-mediated agreement

Ethiopia and Somalia reached a new agreement on December 11, 2024, mediated by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

This agreement aims to resolve the dispute over Somaliland and Ethiopia’s desire for sea access.

Respect for Somalia’s territorial integrity

The new agreement emphasizes respect for Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is incompatible with Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence.

Ethiopian withdrawal hints

Somali officials have stated that Ethiopia retracted its agreement with Somaliland as part of the talks, although this has not been officially confirmed.

New negotiations planned

The agreement stipulates that Ethiopia and Somalia will hold “technical talks” starting in February 2025 to discuss Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea, indicating a shift away from the Somaliland deal.

Somali President’s stance

Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has expressed readiness to collaborate with Ethiopia, suggesting a move away from the previous confrontational stance over the Somaliland agreement.

Ethiopian Prime Minister’s comments

Abiy Ahmed referred to the past year’s tensions as “misunderstandings,” implying a potential shift in Ethiopia’s approach to securing sea access.

Conclusion

While the deal has not been explicitly canceled, these developments strongly suggest that Ethiopia is likely to withdraw from its controversial agreement with Somaliland in favor of pursuing sea access through negotiations with Somalia. The situation remains fluid, and the final outcome will likely depend on the results of the upcoming technical talks between Ethiopia and Somalia.