Introduction

Somaliland’s decision to lease coastal land to Ethiopia for a naval base is driven by several strategic considerations:

Quest for International Recognition

The primary motivation behind Somaliland’s agreement with Ethiopia is its long-standing pursuit of international recognition as an independent state.

By offering Ethiopia access to the sea, Somaliland aims to secure Ethiopia’s recognition of its sovereignty. This would make Ethiopia the first country to formally recognize Somaliland since its unilateral declaration of independence in 1991.

Economic Benefits

While the naval base is strictly for military purposes, the deal is expected to bring economic advantages to Somaliland:

Increased use of Berbera port for Ethiopian imports and exports

Potential share in Ethiopian Airlines

Attraction of foreign investment and access to international financial markets

Regional Influence

The agreement positions Somaliland as a strategic player in the Horn of Africa:

It leverages Somaliland’s strategic location on the Gulf of Aden

Enhances Somaliland’s geopolitical importance in the region

Risks and Challenges

Despite the potential benefits, the deal comes with significant risks

Domestic Opposition

The agreement has faced criticism within Somaliland, with some officials resigning in protest.

Regional Tensions

Somalia strongly opposes the deal, viewing it as a violation of its sovereignty.

International Backlash

The agreement has drawn criticism from various international actors, potentially complicating Somaliland’s quest for recognition.

Internal Stability

Protests have erupted in some parts of Somaliland, particularly in the Awdal region, where Ethiopia has reportedly been offered a military base.

Negotiation Terms

The key terms of the agreement include:

A 50-year lease of a 20-kilometer stretch of coastline to Ethiopia

The naval base is to be used strictly for military purposes, not commercial activities

Ethiopia’s commitment to consider recognizing Somaliland’s independence

Conclusion

This high-stakes gamble by Somaliland demonstrates its determination to achieve international recognition, even at the risk of internal discord and regional tensions. The long-term lease reflects the strategic nature of the agreement and Somaliland’s willingness to make significant concessions for the possibility of gaining sovereignty on the global stage.