Introduction

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, whose real name is Ahmad Hussein al-Sharaa, has emerged as the de facto leader of Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. His rise to power and current strategy can be summarized as follows:

Early History and Rise to Power

Born in 1982 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Jolani was originally a foreign fighter in the Iraq War. He went from Syria to Iraq and joined up with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and [his organization] al Qaeda in Iraq.

He spent some time in the infamous Camp Bucca prison.

And then he became the emir or leader of the Nineveh region

jolani initially served as a foreign fighter during the Iraq War, transitioning from Syria to Iraq where he aligned himself with Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and the al Qaeda in Iraq organization. He spent a period of time at the notorious Camp Bucca prison.

Subsequently, he ascended to the position of emir, or leader, of the Nineveh region in western Iraq for the Islamic State of Iraq, the predecessor to the group currently recognized as the Islamic State.

Following the onset of the Syrian uprising, Jolani engaged in discussions with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State, regarding a strategic initiative in Syria.

By the summer of 2011, he relocated to Syria to establish a new organization known as Jabhat al-Nusra, which functioned as an official branch of the Islamic State of Iraq.

As the Syrian civil war transitioned into a militarized conflict, Jabhat al-Nusra commenced operations and became increasingly integrated with various insurgent factions, particularly those with an Islamist orientation.

In light of the successes achieved during the initial year, Baghdadi sought to publicly affirm the connection between Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq.

In April 2013, he announced the formation of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

However, Jolani rejected this consolidation, recognizing that Baghdadi's intentions included the elimination of opposition activists through targeted assassinations and actions against rival rebel groups.

To navigate this situation while retaining a degree of jihadi legitimacy, Jolani pledged allegiance to Ayman al-Zawahiri Fun, the then-leader of al Qaeda.

However, Jolani expressed dissatisfaction when Zawahiri began deploying operatives from Afghanistan to Syria. Consequently, Jolani severed ties with al Qaeda in July 2016.

Formed the Nusrah Front in 2012, gaining support by offering services.

Later merged with other rebel groups to form Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in January 2017 becoming a dominant faction in the Syrian opposition

Jolani personalty and perception

Jolani is undoubtedly a charismatic leader, a quality that may lead to potential challenges in the future, as demonstrated by the experiences of other charismatic leaders in the region who have fostered a cult of personality. 

Notwithstanding this, he commands a significant level of respect. His strategic acumen is particularly noteworthy; he possesses a profound understanding of when to make decisions and adapt, as evidenced over the past 13.5 years since the commencement of the uprising. However, some critics may describe him as a chameleon. 

The accomplishments of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), alongside the fact that they achieved what many deemed impossible—something believed might not transpire for another generation—suggest that there may be a period of initial support during which their efforts will be acknowledged and respected, particularly in light of the numerous challenges confronting Syria.

Transformation and Rebranding

Distanced himself from al-Qaeda around 2016, though still designated as a terrorist by several countries and organizations

Focused on governance in Idlib province, building institutions and managing trade

Emphasized pragmatism and adaptation to societal norms

Engaged in public relations efforts, including visiting displacement camps and overseeing aid initiatives

Military Strategy and Recent Offensive

Prepared for a year, training fighters and allied factions

Launched a lightning offensive in November 2024, capitalizing on the withdrawal of Assad-backing Hezbollah fighters

Swiftly captured major cities, including Aleppo and Damascus

Current Governance Approach

Political and Administrative Structure:

Created the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) as a civilian front

Operates with ministries and local agencies managing various sectors

Ideological Stance

Advocates for a government influenced by conservative Sunni Islamist ideology

Emphasizes Islamic governance through a technocratic lens

Minority Relations

Promises security to Christian and Kurdish communities

Stresses that “diversity is our strength, not a weakness”

International Relations

Seeks to reassure neighboring countries and powers like Russia

Pledges peaceful relations and offers to maintain Russian bases in Syria

Justice and Reconciliation:

Vows to shut down notorious Assad prisons

Promises to pursue individuals implicated in torture or murder of inmates

Challenges and Criticisms

Accused of authoritarianism and suppressing dissent in Idlib

Faces protests from hardline Islamists and Syrian activists

Criticized for detaining individuals who express dissent

Why did Jolani appoint Mohammad Al-Bashir as Interim PM

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s decision to appoint Mohammed al-Bashir as Syria’s interim prime minister appears to be driven by several strategic considerations:

Technocratic Credentials

Al-Bashir holds a degree in electrical engineering from the University of Aleppo and a second degree in Sharia and Law from Idlib University.

His background as an engineer and experience in public administration align with the image of a technocratic government that HTS is trying to project.

Prior Administrative Experience

Al-Bashir previously headed the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) in Idlib province, which was established by HTS.

This experience in governing rebel-held territory likely made him a suitable candidate for managing the transition on a national scale.

Moderate Image

Al-Bashir’s appointment may be an attempt to present a more moderate face of the new government to both Syrians and the international community.

His background in both secular and religious education could appeal to different segments of Syrian society.

Loyalty and Trust

As a close associate of Jolani, al-Bashir is likely seen as someone who can be trusted to implement HTS’s vision while maintaining Jolani’s influence.

Transitional Figure

Al-Bashir’s appointment as a caretaker prime minister until March 2025 suggests he may be viewed as a transitional figure while longer-term governance structures are established.

While al-Bashir’s appointment may be intended to signal a move towards more pragmatic governance, some analysts view him as potentially just a figurehead for Jolani’s continued control.

The presence of both opposition and Islamist flags during al-Bashir’s announcement has raised questions about the true nature of the new government’s ideology and intentions.

Jolani's strategy differed from other rebel leaders

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s strategy has significantly differed from other rebel leaders in Syria, setting him apart in several key ways:

Pragmatic Governance

Established a civilian administration (Syrian Salvation Government) to manage Idlib province

Focused on providing services and stability to demonstrate governance capabilities

Adapted policies based on public feedback, relaxing strict Islamic law enforcement over time

Rebranding and Moderation

Distanced himself and his group (HTS) from al-Qaeda connections

Adopted a more moderate public image to appeal to both locals and the international community

Emphasized protection for minorities and religious freedoms

Military and Political Strategy

Prepared meticulously for offensives, training fighters and allied factions for extended periods

Utilized innovative tactics, including 3D-printed weapons and drones

Sought to unify rebel factions under HTS leadership to reduce internal conflicts

International Engagement

Actively sought to reassure neighboring countries and global powers like Russia

Expressed willingness to work with the international community on issues like chemical weapons

Attempted to present HTS as a credible political entity despite terrorist designations

Balancing Act

Navigated between appeasing hardline Islamists and appealing to more moderate Syrians

Implemented a hybrid civil-Islamic court system with some modern legal protections

Allowed limited protests and criticism while maintaining overall control

Jolani’s approach demonstrates a more nuanced and adaptive strategy compared to other rebel leaders, combining military action with governance, moderation, and international outreach.

This strategy has enabled him to consolidate power in Idlib and position HTS as a significant force in Syria’s future.

Future Strategy

Jolani’s strategy appears to focus on:

Consolidating power while presenting a more moderate image

Balancing Islamist principles with pragmatic governance

Reassuring minorities and the international community

Maintaining military readiness while emphasizing political solutions

Addressing past human rights abuses while establishing a new order

Did jolani’s ISIS and Al-Qaeda mindset change?

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s evolution from an Al-Qaeda affiliate leader to his current position as the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) raises questions about the possibility of genuine ideological change.

While Jolani has made efforts to rebrand himself and his organization, there are several factors to consider:

Pragmatic Shifts

Jolani has demonstrated a willingness to adapt his strategy and public image for political gain.

He has distanced himself from Al-Qaeda and ISIS, focusing on local governance in Idlib province.

HTS has adopted a more moderate public stance, emphasizing pragmatism over rigid ideology.

Skepticism and Concerns

Many observers remain skeptical of Jolani’s transformation, viewing it as a tactical move rather than a genuine ideological shift.

Critics argue that HTS’s core beliefs have not fundamentally changed, despite the group’s efforts to present a more palatable image.

There are concerns that Jolani’s rebranding is primarily aimed at gaining international legitimacy and removing terrorist designations.

Factors Influencing Change

Military stagnation has pushed HTS to seek alternative sources of legitimacy, including external recognition.

Pressure from both hardliners and locals dissatisfied with HTS’s governance has influenced Jolani’s approach.

The need to maintain power and relevance in a changing political landscape has driven some of Jolani’s strategic decisions.

Indicators of Potential Change

Jolani has emphasized religious tolerance and pluralism in recent public appearances.

He has made efforts to engage with minority communities, such as the Druze, Kurds and Shia’s.

HTS has focused on providing governance and services in areas under its control, moving away from purely militant activities.

Persistent Doubts

Jolani’s history of ideological shifts and tactical alliances raises questions about the sincerity of his current stance.

The group’s treatment of dissent and its authoritarian governance style in Idlib contradict claims of moderation.

Many Syrians and international observers remain unconvinced of Jolani’s democratic intentions.

What is global view of Jolani’s leadership

The global view of Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s leadership is complex and varied, with different stakeholders holding diverse perspectives:

International Concerns

Many countries, including the US, UK, and UN, still designate Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as a terrorist organization.

There are concerns about Syria potentially becoming a safe haven for terrorist groups like the Islamic State under HTS rule.

The international community remains cautious about Jolani’s transformation, questioning the sincerity of his ideological shift.

Rebranding Efforts

Jolani has been working to distance himself from his al-Qaeda roots and present a more moderate image.

He has engaged in public relations efforts, including visiting displacement camps and overseeing aid initiatives.

Jolani has emphasized religious tolerance and pluralism in recent public appearances.

Governance Approach

HTS has established a civilian administration (Syrian Salvation Government) to manage areas under its control.

The group has focused on providing services and stability to demonstrate governance capabilities.

Some observers note improvements in infrastructure and public services in HTS-controlled areas.

Skepticism and Criticism

Human rights organizations have raised concerns about HTS’s treatment of dissidents and allegations of torture.

Critics argue that HTS’s core beliefs have not fundamentally changed, despite efforts to present a more palatable image.

There are doubts about Jolani’s democratic intentions and concerns about his authoritarian governance style.

Regional and International Engagement

Jolani has sought to reassure neighboring countries and global powers like Russia about HTS’s intentions.

HTS has engaged in meetings with ambassadors from various regional and international nations.

The group has pledged to welcome international monitoring of chemical weapons sites left by the Assad regime.

Future Prospects

Some analysts believe Jolani’s pragmatic approach could inspire other factions to adapt, potentially leading to a new era of localized, politically flexible “jihadism”.

Others remain skeptical about his ability to bring stability to Syria and gain international legitimacy.

The global view of Jolani’s leadership remains cautious and divided, with many stakeholders adopting a “wait-and-see” approach as they evaluate his actions and governance in the coming months.

Conclusion

While Jolani has shown a capacity for strategic adaptation, the depth and permanence of his ideological shift remain uncertain. His actions in the coming months, particularly in how HTS governs areas under its control and interacts with diverse Syrian communities, will be crucial in determining whether his change in mindset is genuine or merely a tactical maneuver.

As Jolani stated, “The future is ours,” indicating his determination to shape Syria’s path forward. However, the international community remains cautious, with countries like Germany evaluating HTS based on its treatment of civilians and minorities.