Introduction

China’s foreign policy towards Syria’s new regime is likely to be characterized by pragmatism and caution as Beijing navigates the rapidly changing political landscape. Here are some key aspects of China’s potential approach:

Cautious Engagement

China will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach before formally acknowledging the new administration in Damascus. This cautious stance allows Beijing to assess the stability and orientation of the new government before committing to any significant policy changes.

Economic Opportunities and Reconstruction

Despite the political upheaval, China may still seek to leverage its economic capabilities in Syria:

Potential for Reconstruction

China could offer its expertise and financial resources to assist in Syria’s reconstruction efforts.

Belt and Road Initiative

While Syria joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2022, significant investments have not materialized due to sanctions and instability. The new regime may present an opportunity to revisit these plans.

Reduced Financial Risk

China’s approach to investments in Syria will likely be more conservative, focusing on safer projects and overall risk reduction.

Regional Partnerships

China may work through its regional partners to maintain influence in Syria:

Gulf State Cooperation

Beijing might leverage its relationships with Saudi Arabia and the UAE to shape Syria’s reconstruction and maintain economic engagement.

Turkish Mediation

China could use its ties with Turkey to establish connections with the new regime, particularly given Turkey’s influence over groups like HTS.

Security Concerns

China will prioritize addressing security issues that directly affect its interests:

Uyghur Fighters

Beijing will likely pressure Syria’s new rulers to exclude Uyghur fighters from government roles and potentially seek their deportation to China.

Counterterrorism Cooperation

China may seek to establish counterterrorism cooperation with the new regime to address its concerns about extremism.

Diplomatic Flexibility

China has historically demonstrated adaptability in maintaining ties with successive governments during political transitions. This flexibility will be crucial as Beijing seeks to preserve its interests in Syria while adapting to the new political reality.

Reputational Management

China faces potential reputational challenges due to its previous support for the Assad regime:

Image Rehabilitation

Beijing may need to carefully manage its public stance to avoid being associated with the former regime’s alleged war crimes.

Emphasis on Stability

China is likely to continue advocating for regional stability and a “political resolution” to Syria’s conflicts.

Conclusion

China’s new foreign policy towards Syria will likely prioritize pragmatism, economic opportunities, and security concerns while carefully managing its diplomatic relationships and international image. The success of this approach will depend on the new Syrian government’s orientation and China’s ability to adapt to the evolving situation in the Middle East.