Foreign Affairs Forum

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What benefit HTS gained with the revolution if after their victory they are passing regime to Mohammad Al-Bashir?

Introduction

HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) has gained significant benefits from the Syrian revolution, despite passing the transitional government leadership to Mohammad Al-Bashir. Here are the key advantages HTS has secured:

Legitimacy and International Recognition

By appointing Mohammad Al-Bashir as the head of the transitional government, HTS is attempting to gain legitimacy and international recognition. This move demonstrates their willingness to participate in a broader political process, potentially leading to:

Reconsideration of HTS’s terrorist designation by the United States

Improved relations with regional and international powers

Strategic Control

Despite transferring nominal power to Al-Bashir, HTS maintains significant influence:

Al-Bashir was previously the head of HTS’s Salvation Government in northwest Syria

HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani remains a key figure in the new political landscape

Territorial Expansion

The revolution has allowed HTS to expand its control beyond Idlib:

HTS now has a presence in major cities like Aleppo and Damascus

This expansion gives them access to more resources and population centers

Ideological Influence

By participating in the transitional process, HTS can shape Syria’s future governance:

They can push for implementation of their preferred policies and interpretations of Islamic law

The group can influence the drafting of a new constitution and future elections

Diplomatic Leverage

HTS’s military success gives them significant bargaining power:

They can negotiate with international actors from a position of strength

The group may be able to secure concessions regarding sanctions relief and reconstruction aid

Military Integration

The transitional period allows HTS to potentially integrate its fighters into a reformed national military:

This could legitimize their armed wing and secure positions of power for their members

Conclusion

By appointing Al-Bashir and supporting a transitional government, HTS is attempting to transform from a rebel group to a legitimate political actor while maintaining its influence over Syria’s future. This strategy allows them to consolidate their gains while potentially avoiding international isolation.