Introduction

Based on recent opinion polls, several parties are expected to perform well in the upcoming German federal election scheduled for February 23, 2025. Here’s an overview of the parties likely to have a significant impact:

Leading Parties

CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union)

Currently leading in polls with around 32-33% support

The main opposition coalition led by Friedrich Merz

Positioned as the frontrunner to form the next government

Alternative for Germany (AfD)

Polling at approximately 18-19%

Has seen a rise in support, gaining momentum in recent months

Social Democratic Party (SPD)

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party

Polling between 14-16%

Despite being the current governing party, it has lost some ground

Other Significant Parties

Green Party (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen)

Polling around 11-14%

Former coalition partner in Scholz’s government

Robert Habeck is likely to be their chancellor candidate

Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW)

A newly formed party polling at 6-7%

Split from Die Linke in late 2023

Parties at Risk

Free Democratic Party (FDP)

Polling around 4-5%

At risk of not clearing the 5% threshold required to enter parliament

Die Linke (The Left)

Polling at 3-4%

Also at risk of not meeting the parliamentary threshold

Conclusion

The election is expected to be highly competitive, with the CDU/CSU alliance currently in the strongest position. However, forming a government may require complex coalition negotiations, as traditional alliances might not secure a majority based on current polling trends