What are the chances of a new coalition forming after the elections

Introduction

Based on the current political landscape and polling data, the formation of a new coalition after the February 23, 2025 German federal election is highly likely, but it may present some challenges.

Here’s an analysis of the potential coalition scenarios:

Leading Coalition Possibilities

CDU/CSU-led Coalition


The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union alliance, currently leading in polls with around 32% support, is the frontrunner to form the next government. However, their options for coalition partners are limited:

A coalition with the Greens seems unlikely, as CSU leader Markus Söder has ruled out cooperation at the federal level.

The CDU/CSU rejects working with the far-right AfD.

Their traditional ally, the FDP, is at risk of not clearing the 5% threshold to enter parliament.

This situation may lead to an unexpected outcome:

A potential “grand coalition” with the SPD might be necessary, despite ideological differences.

Other Coalition Scenarios

SPD-led Coalition
While currently polling lower at 14-17%, the SPD under Chancellor Olaf Scholz may still have a chance to form a government:

A continuation of the current “traffic light” coalition with the Greens and FDP seems unlikely due to the recent collapse.

The SPD might seek new partners, potentially including the CDU/CSU in a grand coalition.

Challenges in Coalition Formation

Ideological Differences:

The CDU/CSU and SPD, while both committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2045, disagree on key issues such as:

Carbon pricing strategies

Approach to the automotive industry

Nuclear energy policy

Far-right AfD Factor:

With the AfD polling at around 17-19%, their strong performance may complicate coalition arithmetic for mainstream parties.

Smaller Parties’ Influence:

The performance of smaller parties like the Greens (11-14%), BSW (6-7%), and FDP (3-4%) will be crucial in determining coalition possibilities.

Conclusion

While the formation of a new coalition is highly probable, the specific composition remains uncertain. The most likely scenario appears to be a CDU/CSU-led government, possibly in a grand coalition with the SPD.

However, the final outcome will depend on the exact election results and the willingness of parties to compromise on key policy issues. The complex political landscape suggests that coalition negotiations may be protracted and challenging.