Introduction

Russia’s use of the Oreshnik hypersonic missile in the attack on Dnipro, Ukraine, appears to be a calculated move aimed at sending a strong message to the West, particularly Europe and NATO countries. This action can be interpreted as a multi-faceted warning

Missiles like the Oreshnik were banned under the Cold War-era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), which collapsed after the U.S. withdrawal from it in 2019. Since then, Moscow has had the legal right to develop missiles with a range of 500–5,500 kilometers.

Strategic Implications

Technological Demonstration

By deploying the Oreshnik, Russia showcased its advanced missile capabilities. Putin claimed the missile travels at Mach 10 and is currently unstoppable by existing air defense systems.

Extended Range Threat

The missile’s potential range of up to 5,800 km (about 3,600 miles) puts most of Europe within striking distance. This significantly expands Russia’s ability to threaten targets across the continent.

Nuclear Capability

Although used with conventional warheads in this instance, the Oreshnik is capable of carrying nuclear payloads. This dual-use nature amplifies the implicit threat.

Political Messaging

Response to Western Support

Putin framed the Oreshnik’s use as a direct response to Ukraine’s deployment of Western-supplied long-range missiles like ATACMS and Storm Shadow.

Putin, Russia is currently developing other missile systems similar to the Oreshnik. Given the Russian president’s track record of commenting on this subject, he’s likely referring to the resumption of discontinued missile projects. We might, for example, see work start up again on the development of the Zmeyevik anti-ship ballistic missile.  

Moreover, from Putin’s recent statements, it’s clear Moscow has lifted a self-imposed moratorium on the deployment of short-range and intermediate-range missiles. Putin had previously said Russia could deploy those missiles in response to a similar deployment by the United States; now he’s saying it depends on the further actions of the United States.

Deterrence Signal

The attack serves as a warning against further Western military support for Ukraine. It demonstrates Russia’s willingness to escalate and employ advanced weaponry.

Russia’s updated nuclear doctrine suggests the Kremlin is no longer particularly interested in observing arms control agreements itself. It does, however, want to make use of the fact that the United States values the remaining arms control system. Even now, Washington continues to test the water for a resumption of negotiations on the New START treaty, whose current extension expires in February 2026. Typically, the Russian response is that the topic of arms control can only be resolved in conjunction with the issues of the conflict in Ukraine and Europe’s security architecture.

Pressure on European Policy

The missile’s range and capabilities are likely intended to influence European defense and security policies beyond just Ukraine.

Broader Implications

Escalation of Conflict

The use of such an advanced weapon system represents a significant escalation in the conflict.

Testing in Combat

Putin described the attack as a successful test, indicating Russia’s readiness to use Ukraine as a proving ground for new weapons.

Nuclear Rhetoric

While not a direct nuclear threat, the missile’s deployment is accompanied by increased Russian rhetoric about nuclear capabilities and thresholds.

Conclusion

The Oreshnik missile strike on Dnipro appears to be a deliberate attempt by Russia to warn and intimidate not just Ukraine, but also NATO and European countries. It demonstrates Russia’s technological capabilities, expands its threat radius, and aims to influence Western policy decisions regarding support for Ukraine and broader European security matters.

The missile attack on Dnipro was a new form of Kremlin blackmail, designed to push the West toward making a deal with Russia. The West is being told that if it wants arms control, then it needs to meet Russia’s demands in Ukraine, otherwise there will be more nuclear missiles in Europe. Moscow still remembers the 1970s, when a Soviet deployment of intermediate-range Pioneer missiles to Belarus helped push European leaders to the negotiating table.