How risky are Russia, China and Iran’s hypersonic capabilities?

Introduction

The hypersonic capabilities of Russia, China, and Iran present significant challenges to global security due to their high speeds, maneuverability, and the current limitations of existing defense systems to effectively counter such threats.

Russia’s Hypersonic Capabilities:

Kinzhal Missile:

Russia has developed the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, an air-launched ballistic missile capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 10 and delivering either conventional or nuclear warheads. It has been deployed on MiG-31K interceptors and Tu-22M3 bombers. The Kinzhal has been used in combat during the conflict in Ukraine, demonstrating its operational status.

Tsirkon Missile:

The 3M22 Tsirkon is a ship-launched hypersonic cruise missile designed to engage naval targets. It has undergone several successful tests and is intended to equip various Russian naval platforms, enhancing Russia’s anti-ship capabilities.

China’s Hypersonic Capabilities:

DF-17 Missile:

China’s People’s Liberation Army has developed the DF-17, a medium-range ballistic missile equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV). The DF-17 is capable of traveling at hypersonic speeds with high maneuverability, making it challenging to intercept. It was first showcased publicly in 2019.

FOBS with HGV:

In 2021, China tested a Fractional Orbital Bombardment System (FOBS) combined with a hypersonic glide vehicle, demonstrating the ability to launch a missile that orbits the Earth before re-entering the atmosphere to strike its target. This capability allows for complex flight paths, potentially evading traditional missile defense systems.

Iran’s Hypersonic Capabilities:

Fattah Missile:

Iran has unveiled the Fattah hypersonic missile, claiming it can reach speeds up to Mach 15 and evade advanced air defense systems. The missile reportedly has a range of 1,400 kilometers and is designed to target enemy anti-missile systems. However, the operational status and effectiveness of the Fattah remain subjects of analysis and debate.

Risk Assessment:

The development and deployment of hypersonic weapons by these nations pose several risks:

Strategic Stability:

Hypersonic missiles’ high speed and maneuverability reduce the reaction time for defense systems, potentially leading to miscalculations or unintended escalations during conflicts.

Defense Challenges:

Current missile defense systems are primarily designed to counter ballistic or subsonic cruise missiles. The unique flight profiles of hypersonic weapons make them difficult to detect, track, and intercept, necessitating advancements in defense technologies.

Proliferation Concerns:

The spread of hypersonic technology increases the number of actors capable of deploying such weapons, complicating global arms control efforts and potentially leading to an arms race.

Conclusion

In response to these developments, countries like the United States are investing in hypersonic weapon programs and enhancing missile defense systems to mitigate the emerging threats posed by hypersonic technologies.