Germany - Russia - Shift in foreign policy

Germany’s relationship with Russia has undergone a significant transformation in recent years, particularly following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Here’s an overview of the current state of German-Russian relations:

Dramatic Shift in Policy
Germany has made a dramatic shift in its approach to Russia since the invasion of Ukraine began:
   •    Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a “Zeitenwende” (turning point) in German foreign and security policy, marking a fundamental change in Germany’s stance towards Russia.
   •    Germany has become the second-largest supplier of arms to Ukraine after the United States, a significant departure from its previous reluctance to send weapons to conflict zones.
   •    The country quickly decoupled from Russian gas and oil, despite the high economic costs, given that Germany previously received nearly 60% of its gas from Russia.

Sanctions and Support for Ukraine
Germany has taken a strong stance against Russian aggression:
   •    As of February 2024, Germany had supported thirteen comprehensive packages of EU sanctions against Russia.
   •    The German government agreed to provide Ukraine with an additional 8 billion euros of support, despite running a budget deficit in 2024.
   •    Germany’s defense budget for 2024 met the NATO spending target of 2% of GDP for the first time in decades.
Public Opinion and Political Challenges
The shift in policy has not been without challenges:
   •    German public opinion has grown increasingly negative towards Russia, with 95% disapproving of Russian President Vladimir Putin as of 2024.
   •    However, there is growing fatigue among the German public regarding the war and concerns about its economic costs.
   •    Right-wing and left-wing populist parties are attempting to capitalize on this sentiment, advocating for peace without providing a clear roadmap.
Diplomatic Stance
Germany is attempting to balance its commitments:
   •    Chancellor Scholz has suggested that any future Ukraine peace conference must include Russia, indicating a desire for diplomatic solutions.
   •    Germany continues to prioritize caution to avoid escalation with Russia, as evidenced by its refusal to provide long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine.
   •    The country is trying to maintain its alliance with the United States while also prioritizing the EU as its framework for action.

Economic and Energy Implications
The new relationship has had significant economic consequences:
   •    Germany’s abrupt decoupling from Russian gas in 2022 resulted in a shock to its economy, particularly affecting energy-intensive industries.
   •    While the initial spike in energy prices has subsided, prices have settled above pre-invasion levels, contributing to ongoing inflation concerns.
Future Outlook
As Germany navigates this new reality:
   •    There is recognition that the war marks the end of the post-Cold War European security order.
   •    Germany is working to expand Europe’s conventional military capabilities and defense-industrial capacity.
   •    However, there is still no clear long-term strategy for future relations with Russia or a comprehensive new German or EU Russia policy.

In conclusion, Germany’s relationship with Russia has fundamentally changed, moving from economic partnership to a stance of deterrence and support for Ukraine. While challenges remain, particularly in terms of public opinion and economic impacts, Germany has demonstrated a commitment to a new, more assertive foreign policy in response to Russian aggression.