Europe can take several proactive steps to counterbalance a potential Trump-Putin agreement and strengthen its position:

Enhance Defense Capabilities

Increase Military Spending:

• Raise defense spending to a new minimum of 3% of GDP

• Allocate an additional 0.5% of GDP specifically for military assistance to Ukraine

• Follow Estonia’s example by increasing taxes to fund larger defense expenditures

Develop Strategic Autonomy:

• Expand production of weapons and ammunition

• Address shortfalls in strategic enablers like intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), integrated air and missile defense, and long-range precision strike capabilities

• Invest in unmanned systems and space-based capabilities

Strengthen Support for Ukraine

Direct Military Assistance:

• Deploy European troops to Ukraine as trainers and advisors

• Position air defense assets in front-line countries to protect Ukrainian airspace

Economic Support:

• Seize and utilize the €300 billion in frozen Russian assets to fund weapons and ammunition for Ukraine

• Accelerate Ukraine’s EU accession process

Reinforce European Unity

Reaffirm NATO Commitments:

• Lock in NATO’s commitment to eventual Ukrainian membership

• Strengthen intra-European defense cooperation

Burden-Sharing:

• Implement mechanisms to share the economic burden of the crisis among EU member states

• Address the uneven distribution of economic vulnerabilities across Europe

Diplomatic and Strategic Measures

Leverage Transatlantic Relations:

• Link U.S. commitment to NATO with Europe’s cooperation on China policy

• Engage in tough transactional bargaining with the U.S. to defend European interests

Develop Alternative Security Frameworks:

• Revitalize regional alliances like the Weimar Triangle (France, Germany, Poland)

• Strengthen cooperation with the United Kingdom on defense issues

By implementing these measures, Europe can enhance its strategic autonomy, maintain support for Ukraine, and be better prepared to navigate potential challenges arising from a Trump-Putin agreement.