The Pitfalls for Europe of a Trump-Putin Deal on

November 29, 2024 Antonio B

Introduction

The Pitfalls for Europe of a Trump-Putin Deal on Ukraine are significant and multifaceted:

A Trump-Putin deal could potentially:

Split the West and weaken Western support for Ukraine

Undermine existing Western alliances and the European security order

Allow Putin to extract concessions from the United States at Europe’s expense

The deal might enable Russia to:

Subjugate and take political control of Ukraine more easily

Rearm and recover using Ukraine’s economic and population resources

Prepare for potential future aggression against other European countries

There are concerns that a deal could:

Be struck without proper input from Ukraine and European allies

Potentially cede Ukrainian territory to Russia

Force Ukraine to abandon its NATO membership aspirations

The aftermath of such a deal might lead to:

Increased defense spending across Europe as countries prepare for reduced U.S. support

A weakened NATO, with Trump having previously threatened to leave the alliance

Greater vulnerability to Russian aggression for other European nations

A Trump-Putin agreement could result in:

Potential economic pain for Europe, including a possible 10% drop in the euro against the dollar

Earnings decline for large European companies

Disruptions in global financial stability and the dollar’s dominance as a reserve currency

The deal might:

Set a dangerous precedent for resolving international conflicts

Necessitate a more assertive and self-reliant European foreign policy approach

To mitigate these pitfalls, experts suggest that Europe must:

Urgently step up and act before Trump initiates deal-making with Putin

Ensure European interests are represented in any negotiations

Prepare for a potentially reduced U.S. role in European security

Maintain a united front in supporting Ukraine and deterring Russian aggression