The Pitfalls for Europe of a Trump-Putin Deal on
Introduction
The Pitfalls for Europe of a Trump-Putin Deal on Ukraine are significant and multifaceted:
Undermining Western Unity
A Trump-Putin deal could potentially:
Split the West and weaken Western support for Ukraine
Undermine existing Western alliances and the European security order
Allow Putin to extract concessions from the United States at Europe’s expense
Empowering Russia
The deal might enable Russia to:
Subjugate and take political control of Ukraine more easily
Rearm and recover using Ukraine’s economic and population resources
Prepare for potential future aggression against other European countries
Compromising Ukraine’s Sovereignty
There are concerns that a deal could:
Be struck without proper input from Ukraine and European allies
Potentially cede Ukrainian territory to Russia
Force Ukraine to abandon its NATO membership aspirations
Destabilizing European Security
The aftermath of such a deal might lead to:
Increased defense spending across Europe as countries prepare for reduced U.S. support
A weakened NATO, with Trump having previously threatened to leave the alliance
Greater vulnerability to Russian aggression for other European nations
Economic Consequences
A Trump-Putin agreement could result in:
Potential economic pain for Europe, including a possible 10% drop in the euro against the dollar
Earnings decline for large European companies
Disruptions in global financial stability and the dollar’s dominance as a reserve currency
Long-term Strategic Implications
The deal might:
Set a dangerous precedent for resolving international conflicts
Encourage further Russian adventurism in Europe
Necessitate a more assertive and self-reliant European foreign policy approach
To mitigate these pitfalls, experts suggest that Europe must:
Urgently step up and act before Trump initiates deal-making with Putin
Ensure European interests are represented in any negotiations
Prepare for a potentially reduced U.S. role in European security
Maintain a united front in supporting Ukraine and deterring Russian aggression
