Introduction

Trump’s relationship with Saudi Arabia could significantly impact Russia’s economy, particularly in the oil sector:

Oil Market Manipulation

Potential Price War:

Trump could leverage his relationship with Saudi Arabia to flood global oil markets, undercutting Russia’s export income

This strategy, suggested by potential national security advisor Mike Waltz, aims to paralyze Russia’s economy

Historical Precedent:

In April 2020, Trump brokered a deal with Saudi Arabia, Russia, and OPEC to stabilize oil prices after a price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia

This past intervention demonstrates Trump’s willingness to engage in oil market diplomacy

Economic Pressure

Coordinated Sanctions:

Trump could work with Saudi Arabia to impose economic pressure on Russia through coordinated actions in the oil market

This approach could be combined with enhanced U.S. sanctions to maximize impact on Russia’s economy

Strategic Implications

OPEC+ Dynamics:

Trump’s influence on Saudi Arabia could affect the Saudi-Russian cooperation within OPEC+, potentially weakening Russia’s position in the organization

Disrupting this cooperation could reduce Russia’s ability to use OPEC+ as leverage against the U.S. and other consuming countries

Geopolitical Realignment:

Trump’s engagement with Saudi Arabia might aim to weaken the growing Saudi-Russian partnership, which has been challenging U.S. influence in the Middle East

This could potentially isolate Russia further in the international community

Conclusion

By utilizing his relationship with Saudi Arabia, Trump could create significant economic challenges for Russia, particularly by targeting its crucial oil export revenues. This approach could be part of a broader strategy to pressure Russia into negotiations or concessions on various geopolitical issues.