Introduction

The recent ceasefire deal between Lebanon and Israel, mediated by the United States, marks a significant development in the ongoing conflict primarily involving Israel and Hezbollah. Here are the key points of the agreement:

Overview of the Ceasefire Agreement

Duration:

The ceasefire is set to last for 60 days, during which both sides are expected to halt hostilities completely.

Withdrawal of Forces:

Hezbollah:

The Lebanese militia is required to withdraw its fighters and military assets from areas south of the Litani River, approximately 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the Israel-Lebanon border.

Israel:

Israeli forces will also withdraw from southern Lebanon within the same timeframe, allowing civilians from both sides to return home safely.

Deployment of Lebanese Army:

The Lebanese army will replace Hezbollah in the southern region, with an expected deployment of around 5,000 soldiers. This move aims to ensure that no armed groups operate in that area, in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which sought to maintain peace following the 2006 conflict.

Monitoring and Enforcement

International Oversight:

A tripartite mechanism involving the United Nations peacekeeping force (UNIFIL), the Lebanese army, and Israeli forces will be expanded to include representatives from the United States and France. This group will monitor compliance with the ceasefire terms and address any violations that may arise.

Israeli Right to Respond:

While Israel has asserted its right to respond militarily if Hezbollah breaches the ceasefire, this provision has not been formally included in the agreement. However, it has been indicated that any significant threats identified by Israel could prompt military action.

Objectives and Implications

Long-term Peace:

The ceasefire aims not only to halt immediate hostilities but also to establish a foundation for a more durable peace between Lebanon and Israel. President Biden emphasized that this agreement is intended to create a lasting cessation of violence and improve security for residents on both sides of the border.

Humanitarian Considerations:

The deal is seen as crucial for alleviating humanitarian concerns, as over 1.2 million people have been displaced due to ongoing violence. The return of these individuals to their homes is a priority for both Hezbollah and Lebanese officials.

Challenges Ahead

Despite the optimism surrounding this ceasefire agreement, there are significant challenges:

Capacity of Lebanese Forces:

There are concerns regarding whether the Lebanese army has sufficient resources and authority to enforce the ceasefire effectively, especially given Lebanon’s complex sectarian landscape and Hezbollah’s entrenched presence in southern Lebanon.

Potential for Violations:

Both parties have historically accused each other of violating ceasefire agreements. The durability of this new truce will depend on adherence to its terms and effective monitoring by international forces.

Predictions

The deal seems to be fair but Hezbollah will return will more power for revenge. Also there is a possibility of Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon army. Iran will not bow down and the war ( s) will continue. On other hand, it has to be noted that many of explosives fired in Lebanon from Israeli army did not detonate? There is a possibility of those to act as landmines for coming future for Israel to give a reason to violate cease-fire agreement putting blame or escalation in Lebanon side. These are conspiracy theories and prediction that this is prolonged conflict

Conclusion

The ceasefire represents a hopeful step towards resolving long-standing tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, its success will largely depend on compliance from both sides and effective enforcement mechanisms.