Introduction

Saudi Arabia’s two-track approach in its relations with the U.S. could significantly reshape the dynamics of their partnership, especially in light of a potential second Trump presidency. This strategy, which separates economic interests from foreign policy, may lead to both opportunities and challenges for U.S.-Saudi relations.

Potential Impacts on U.S.-Saudi Relations

Strengthened Military and Economic Ties

One of the primary benefits of Saudi Arabia’s two-track approach is the potential for enhanced military cooperation and economic ties with the United States. Under a Trump administration, Riyadh anticipates a more favorable environment for negotiating defense agreements and arms sales, similar to those experienced during his first term. This includes discussions around a mutual defense treaty, which would solidify U.S. security commitments to Saudi Arabia, particularly against threats from Iran.

The proposed agreements could also encompass civilian nuclear cooperation, allowing Saudi Arabia to develop its nuclear capabilities under U.S. oversight. Such developments would not only bolster Saudi military capabilities but also enhance its strategic position in the region.

Balancing Regional Interests

However, this approach also poses risks. By pursuing a closer relationship with the U.S., Saudi Arabia may inadvertently alienate other regional players, particularly Iran. A formal defense pact could escalate tensions in the Middle East and provoke retaliatory actions from adversaries. Additionally, while Riyadh seeks to strengthen its security through U.S. support, it must also navigate its relationships with other powers, including China, which it has been courting for economic partnerships.

Congressional Challenges

The effectiveness of Saudi Arabia’s two-track strategy will likely be influenced by the political landscape in Washington. There is growing skepticism among U.S. lawmakers regarding unconditional support for Saudi Arabia due to past actions in Yemen and human rights concerns. This sentiment could complicate efforts to secure robust military agreements or arms sales without significant scrutiny from Congress.

Moreover, should Trump return to power, his administration may face pressure to balance support for Saudi interests with broader U.S. foreign policy objectives, including addressing human rights issues and regional stability.

Conclusion

In summary, Saudi Arabia’s two-track approach could lead to strengthened military and economic ties with the U.S., enhancing its security posture against regional threats. However, this strategy carries inherent risks, including potential backlash from adversaries and complications arising from domestic U.S. politics. The success of this approach will depend on Riyadh’s ability to navigate these complexities while maintaining a balance between its ambitions and the expectations of its key ally.