Introduction

While Donald Trump is not physically present in the current political landscape, his recent re-election and impending return to the White House in January 2025 is indeed casting a significant shadow over both the European Union and the United Kingdom. This “Trump ghost” is influencing policy discussions, diplomatic relations, and strategic planning in several key areas:

Security and Defense Concerns

NATO Uncertainty:

There are growing fears about Trump’s commitment to NATO, with concerns that he might reduce U.S. participation or even attempt to make the alliance “dormant”.

Ukraine Conflict:

Trump’s proposed “peace plan” for Ukraine has raised alarms, as it might compromise Ukraine’s territorial integrity and exclude it from NATO.

EU-UK Defense Cooperation:

The prospect of reduced U.S. involvement is pushing the EU and UK to consider closer defense ties and increased military spending.

Economic and Trade Implications

Tariff Threats:

Trump’s campaign promise to impose significant tariffs on imports, including up to 60% on Chinese goods, is causing anxiety about a potential global trade war.

EU-UK Trade Dynamics:

The UK faces a difficult choice between aligning with EU retaliatory measures or seeking a bilateral deal with the U.S. to avoid tariffs.

Transatlantic Relations:

There are concerns about the future of initiatives like the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council, which could impact cooperation on tech policy and AI governance.

Political Ripple Effects

Rise of Populism:

Trump’s victory is seen as potentially emboldening far-right and populist movements across Europe.

EU-UK Reset:

Paradoxically, Trump’s re-election might accelerate efforts to improve EU-UK relations as both seek to counterbalance U.S. unpredictability.

Diplomatic Challenges:

European leaders are grappling with how to engage with a Trump administration while maintaining their own values and interests.

Strategic Recalibration

European Autonomy:

There’s a growing push for “geopolitical Europe” – a more self-sufficient bloc capable of defending its interests independently.

UK’s Global Position:

Britain is reassessing its role, potentially seeking to position itself as a bridge between the U.S. and EU.

Conclusion

The “Trump ghost” is indeed haunting EU and UK policy discussions, forcing both to confront the potential challenges and opportunities that a second Trump presidency might bring. This situation is prompting a reevaluation of transatlantic relations and pushing European nations to consider greater strategic autonomy and cooperation among themselves.