Introduction

Here are some key points about the potential future of Hezbollah in 2025:

Leadership Transition:

Naim Qassem’s leadership will likely focus on stabilizing the organization after significant losses in 2024.

His leadership style may differ from Nasrallah’s, potentially being more focused on domestic Lebanese politics.

Military Capabilitiest:

Hezbollah will likely spend much of 2025 rebuilding its military capabilities after major setbacks from Israeli operations in 2024.

The group may face challenges in rearming if new ceasefire agreements restrict arms imports to Lebanon.

Political Role in Lebanon:

Hezbollah may focus more on domestic Lebanese politics under Qassem’s leadership.

The group could face increased opposition from other Lebanese factions seeking to limit its influence.

Relationship with Iran:

Iran may take a more hands-on approach in directing Hezbollah, at least in the short term.

The relationship may evolve as Qassem establishes his leadership style.

Conflict with Israel:

The nature of Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel may change, potentially moving towards a more diplomatic approach.

However, the core mission of resisting Israel is likely to continue.

International Relations:

Hezbollah will likely remain designated as a terrorist organization by several countries.

The group may seek to improve its international image, focusing on its political role in Lebanon.

Internal Restructuring:

Qassem will likely focus on restructuring the organization, particularly its non-military sectors.

There may be efforts to rebuild public support and confidence in the group.

Regional Role:

Hezbollah’s regional influence may be diminished in the short term as it focuses on internal recovery.

The group’s involvement in regional conflicts may be more limited compared to previous years.

Potential for Change:

There may be internal discussions about Hezbollah’s long-term strategy, including the possibility of transitioning to a purely political movement.

However, significant changes to its core ideology or military stance seem unlikely in the near term.

Economic Challenges:

Hezbollah will likely face ongoing economic challenges, both due to sanctions and the broader economic situation in Lebanon.

Conclusion

Overall, 2025 is likely to be a period of recovery and potential restructuring for Hezbollah, with a focus on rebuilding its capabilities and navigating a changing political landscape in Lebanon and the broader region.