What are the immediate military challenges Hezbollah faces without Nasrallah

Introduction

The death of Hassan Nasrallah poses several immediate military challenges for Hezbollah:

Leadership Void:

Nasrallah’s death has created a significant leadership vacuum. His unique combination of charisma, strategic acumen, and military experience will be difficult to replace quickly.

Decimated Command Structure:

Israel has systematically eliminated much of Hezbollah’s military leadership in recent weeks. Key figures killed include:

Fuad Shukr, head of Hezbollah’s strategic division

Ibrahim Aqil, the group’s operational chief

Wassim al-Tawil, commander of the elite Radwan unit

Ali Karaki, commander of the southern front

Compromised Communications:

Israel’s sabotage operation detonated thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah, severely disrupting their command and control capabilities.

Operational Inertia: The combination of leadership losses and communication disruptions has likely rendered Hezbollah “operationally inert” in the short term.

Rebuilding Military Prowess: Reconstructing the military leadership and restoring operational capabilities will be an “arduous years-long task”.

Strategic Decision-Making: Hezbollah faces critical strategic choices in a time of temporary leadership uncertainty.

Maintaining Arsenal: While Hezbollah retains a large arsenal (estimated 150,000 rockets and missiles), effectively mobilizing and utilizing these resources may be challenging given the leadership and communication losses.

Coordinating with Iran:

Nasrallah played a crucial role in coordinating with Iran’s Supreme Leader. His death has severed a key “connective tissue” between Hezbollah and Iran, potentially complicating strategic alignment and support.

Responding to Israeli Operations: Hezbollah must prepare for potential further Israeli military actions, including a possible ground operation, while in a weakened state.

Restoring Deterrence: The group faces the challenge of restoring its deterrence capability against Israel after suffering significant losses.

Conclusion

These challenges collectively present a formidable task for Hezbollah in maintaining its military effectiveness in the immediate aftermath of Nasrallah’s death.