How does Hezbollah's military involvement in regional conflicts affect its domestic popularity

Introduction

Hezbollah’s military involvement in regional conflicts has a complex and sometimes contradictory effect on its domestic popularity in Lebanon:

Sectarian Divide:


Hezbollah’s popularity remains heavily divided along sectarian lines. The group maintains strong support among Lebanon’s Shiite population, while other sects (Sunnis, Christians, and Druze) generally have much lower levels of trust in the organization.

Fluctuating Support:


Support for Hezbollah’s regional role can fluctuate based on current events. For instance, the Arab Barometer survey showed that perception of Hezbollah’s positive role in regional politics increased by 9 points since 2022, largely due to increased support from non-Shiite sects.

Impact of Israel-Gaza Conflict:


The recent conflict between Israel and Gaza has led to increased support for Hezbollah’s stance against Israel among Lebanese of all sects. 78% of Lebanese respondents viewed Israel’s actions in Gaza as a “terrorist act”, while only 11% viewed Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel as terrorism.

Resistance Narrative:
Hezbollah’s involvement in conflicts against Israel can boost its popularity by reinforcing its image as a resistance force. This was evident after the 2006 war with Israel, where Hezbollah’s perceived success in resisting Israeli forces increased its domestic support.

Economic and Political Concerns:


Despite potential increases in support due to regional conflicts, Hezbollah faces challenges due to Lebanon’s ongoing economic crisis and political instability. Many Lebanese, particularly non-Shiites, have been critical of Hezbollah’s role in these domestic issues.

Fear of Escalation:
While there may be support for Hezbollah’s stance against Israel, many Lebanese fear a full-scale war breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which could negatively impact the group’s popularity if it’s seen as provoking such a conflict.

Non-Shiite Support:
Interestingly, recent data suggests that support for Hezbollah’s regional role has increased among non-Shiite sects (Druze, Sunnis, and Christians) since 2022, possibly due to its resistance against Israel following the war in Gaza.

Overall Trust Levels:
Despite potential increases in support for Hezbollah’s regional role, overall trust in the organization remains relatively low among the general Lebanese population. Only 30% of Lebanese say they have a great deal of trust in Hezbollah.

“Rally-Around-the-Flag” Effect:


In times external conflict, there can be a “rally-around-the-flag” effect where Lebanese citizens, despite their differences, may band together against a foreign force. This could potentially boost support for Hezbollah in the short term.

Long-term Implications:


The long-term impact on Hezbollah’s popularity will likely depend on the outcomes of these conflicts and how they affect Lebanon. If Hezbollah is seen as successfully resisting external threats, it could boost its popularity, but if its actions lead to significant destruction in Lebanon, support could decrease.

Conclusion

while Hezbollah’s military involvement in regional conflicts can boost its popularity, particularly among its Shiite base and in times of conflict with Israel, it also risks alienating other segments of Lebanese society, especially if these conflicts lead to negative consequences for Lebanon as a whole.