What is probability of Israel to rebuild Gaza for Palestinians

Based on the current circumstances and available information, the likelihood of Israel directly undertaking the reconstruction of Gaza for the Palestinians appears to be minimal. Several factors contribute to this conclusion:

Israel’s Position and Strategy

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has explicitly excluded the possibility of Hamas or the Palestinian Authority governing Gaza in the future. Instead, Israel envisions a framework of ongoing security control, while delegating civilian responsibilities to local Palestinian entities. It is noteworthy that no Palestinians have stepped forward to assume such roles, and Hamas has issued threats against individuals who may assist in this potential occupation.

Proposed Reconstruction Framework

The office of Netanyahu has released a plan for post-war Gaza, which delineates a three-phase approach:

1. Humanitarian Aid (12 months):Establishing safe areas devoid of Hamas influence.

2. Reconstruction (5-10 years):To be managed by a coalition of Arab nations.

3. Self-Governance: A gradual transfer of authority to a local or unified Palestinian government.

This framework indicates that Israel does not intend to spearhead the reconstruction of Gaza directly; rather, it aims to facilitate this process through international collaboration.

Challenges and Timeframes

The extent of destruction in Gaza poses significant challenges:

- An estimated 40 million tons of debris require removal, which could take up to 15 years and incur costs of approximately $650 million.

- Nearly 70% of Gaza’s water and sanitation infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed.

- The United Nations estimates that it may take up to 40 years to rebuild the homes that have been destroyed under pre-war conditions.

- Some projections indicate that it could take as long as 350 years for Gaza’s economy to recover.

Furthermore, Israel is unlikely to allow the importation of substantial quantities of construction materials and heavy machinery as long as there remains a risk of Hamas re-establishing its militant capabilities.

Conclusion

Given these considerations, it appears more plausible that the reconstruction of Gaza will be an international effort involving Arab states and other global partners, rather than a direct initiative led by Israel for the benefit of the Palestinian population. Israel's role is likely to be supportive rather than directive in this process.