Lebanon's future is clouded by substantial challenges and uncertainties, highlighted by recent events and ongoing issues:

Economic Crisis

Lebanon is enduring a grave economic crisis further worsened by recent conflicts. The economy is anticipated to shrink significantly, with forecasts suggesting:

- A contraction of 9.2% in 2024 if hostilities persist through the year.

- Additional declines of 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, even if conflicts cease by the end of 2024.

This economic downturn adds to a 28% contraction recorded between 2018 and 2022, negating prior advancements in economic stability.

Rising Unemployment and Poverty

The economic decline is poised to trigger severe social repercussions:

- Unemployment could escalate to 32.6% by the end of 2024.

- An estimated 1.2 million workers nationwide are projected to be affected by the rising unemployment.

- Rates of poverty and vulnerability are expected to surge significantly.

Political Instability

Lebanon faces ongoing political hurdles:

- The country has been without a president since Michel Aoun's departure in 2023.

- A persistent political deadlock prevents the formation of a functional government.

Security Concerns

The security landscape remains volatile:

- The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah along the Lebanon-Israel border has led to numerous casualties and displacements.

- There are fears of potential escalation, with some analysts suggesting an intensification of conflict is imminent.

Hezbollah’s Influence

The future role of Hezbollah in Lebanon is a pivotal concern:

- Hezbollah has held considerable sway over Lebanon's affairs for over thirty years.

- Recent events, including Israeli military actions, might affect Hezbollah's power and standing in Lebanon.

- Hezbollah had recent change of leader and leadership style.

Nasrallah Hassan execution was a big blow of the very much known charismatic and experienced leader. On other hand Naim Qassem lacks the charisma and experience of war. Lot has to be seen in coming months in future of Hezbollah.

International Support and Reconstruction

Lebanon's prospects are likely to hinge on international backing:

- There is an urgent demand for humanitarian aid and developmental support.

- Essential areas of focus include access to basic necessities such as water, food, health services, sanitation, and critical infrastructure.

- The nation's capacity to attract international funding for reconstruction and economic recovery will be vital.

Potential for Change

Despite these challenges, there are possible avenues for positive transformation:

- The potential withdrawal of Hezbollah from the Lebanese political scene could open doors for restoring the country's sovereignty and stability.

- There is an acknowledged necessity for unity among Lebanon's diverse factions to tackle the current crises.

In summary, while Lebanon's immediate future appears bleak and uncertain, there exists potential for positive change if the country can effectively address its political, economic, and security issues with international support. Nevertheless, the journey ahead is fraught with challenges and will likely necessitate significant reforms and external assistance.