The Game of Putin or of a Russian Oligarch?

Victory or Defeat -None

Introduction

In recent events, the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, made headlines with a rebellion against the Russian government. This action revealed divisions among the Russian elite and raised concerns about the real goals of the attempted coup. Prigozhin's ascent to prominence in Russian politics and the unexpected withdrawal of Wagner forces from within 200 miles of Moscow have led observers to wonder whether the entire incident was only a show of force or a serious attempt to undermine Putin's authority. This article investigates the facts, dives into the circumstances leading up to Wagner's coup, and makes an effort to clarify the nuances of the issue.

Events

Wagner Forces advancing to Moscow

On June 23, 2023, Prigozhin declared a rebellion, accusing the Russian Defense Ministry of attacking his forces in occupied Donbas and demanding the surrender of key military leaders. He led his Wagner forces to seize possession of Rostov-on-Don and the headquarters of the Southern Military District, then boldly advanced with an armored column towards Moscow. Nevertheless, the Russian military responded with airstrikes, and the situation swiftly deteriorated.

Alexander Lukashenko - President of Belarus

In an unexpected turn of events, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko mediated a settlement in which Prigozhin agreed to terminate the rebellion on June 24, 2023, and withdraw his forces. A few days later, the Federal Security Service unexpectedly withdrew the charges against him.

Facts

Is there a threat to Kremlin? I staged it.

The coup attempt by the Wagner Group jolted the political landscape of Russia, exposing internal divisions and highlighting the strength of this private military company. Some analysts have hypothesized that Prigozhin acted on Putin's instructions to test military loyalty and prepare for a crackdown on dissent.

Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov

Many believe the so called coup was motivated by Prigozhin's personal feud with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, as well as his desire to become a major political figure in Russia.

President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu

Wagner's abrupt withdrawal from the outskirts of Moscow is subject to conjecture. They may have encountered substantial resistance from loyalist forces, opposition from the public, and the danger of severe international repercussions and sanctions. In addition, they lacked extensive popular support, unlike Putin, whose leadership enjoys high levels of approval and legitimacy.

Conclusion

President Vladimir Putin

While the precise reasons for Wagner's coup remain unknown, it is clear that the event was a high-stakes power move that exposed internal tensions within the Russian elite. Wagner's abrupt retreat from the outskirts of Moscow may have been the result of a combination of military resistance, political realism, and calculated decision-making.

The Wagner leader's ambition to assume control of Russia and become the next president was audacious. Nonetheless, he encountered insurmountable obstacles, such as a lack of political legitimacy, international opposition, and disloyalty from Russia's military and security apparatus.

The Wagner Group's coup attempt has left an indelible impression on Russia's political landscape, reminding the international community of the complexities and power struggles within the country's elite circles. As events continue to unfold, the impact of this rebellion will reverberate throughout Russia's corridors of power, raising concerns about the future dynamics between the state, oligarchs, and private military organizations.

In conclusion, the coup attempt by the Wagner Group illustrates the delicate balance of power in Russia, where loyalty, ambition, and strategic maneuvering can have far-reaching effects on the country's political stability and international relations. Time alone will reveal the true implications of this bold display of force as the situation evolves.

Yevgeny Prigozhin - Wagner Group Chief