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European parliamentary elections 2019

 

The results of the European elections revealed some unexpected outcomes as the full picture from the world's biggest multi-country vote became clearer.Voters across 28 countries delivered the highest turnout in a European election for 20 years, as they selected new representatives to sit in the European Parliament.This was the first time in Europe's history that turnout for these elections has risen, climbing from 43% to an encouraging 51%, and, although they will probably not upset the composition of the majority in the European Parliament, for the individual member states they have had disruptive and, in many cases, destabilizing effects. Many local governments have been defeated at the polls and their future now appears far from obvious.

In short, it can be said that the sovereigns did not break through, the Greens and the Liberals, on the contrary, achieved the best result in history. The hegemony of conservatives and socialists ends, but inside the European Parliament there still remains a pro-EU majority.

Here are some of the key takeaways from some of the provisional results so far:

Italy has been one of the special observed in these elections. A truly epochal result for the right-wing Lega Party, led by Deputy Prime Minister and eurosceptic Matteo Salvini, who said that he will try to form an anti-EU bloc with Marine Le Pen and Hungary’s Viktor Orban, but it’s unclear if that will materialize.Here, the balance of power between the two allies of Lega and Movimento 5 Stelle government was almost perfectly reversed. The first has obtained 34.33% of preferences, as a result the most voted party of the continent, with 9 million and 175 thousand preferences, against the almost 8 and a half of the CDU, the 7 million and 600 thousand of the German Greens and the 7 million and 300 thousand of Spanish Socialists; while the Movimento5 Stelle only obtained a 17.1% of preferences.

In Germany the Angela Merkel CDU confirms itself as the first party with 28.9%, followed by the Greens with a remarkable 20.5%, and by the Socialists with 15.8%. The European vote will also have significant effects on the country, where Angela Merkel's Great Coalition appears to be in clear difficulty. The CDU/CSU party obtained the worst result in history in a European vote. At this point many ask to put an end to the Great Coalition, the union between CDU/CSU and SPD, considered the main cause of this defeat.The Merkel government will immediately begin a series of consultations, also because Frau Merkel's long domination, set for 2021, could be anticipated by a lot on the agenda given the new internal power relations, and the flop of the electoral campaign from her dolphin, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer.

In France the reformist grandeur of Emmanuel Macron has evaporated within two years and Marine Le Pen, defeated in the 2017 presidential elections, has taken revenge. The Rassemblement National wins with 23.31% of the votes, while Renaissance, supported among others by En Marche, reaches 22.41% of the preferences. A slight difference, however, made more marked by the continuous disorders occurred in the last months, that literally set the cities on fire, throughout the country.

In Spain the traditional formations have held up, with the Socialists of Pedro Sanchez flying to a remarkable 32.8% while the Popular is the second party with 20.1% of preferences.

In UK, the absolute and undisputed winner is Nigel Farage. The Brexit Party was voted by 30.8% of the voters. The Liberal Democrats, historically the third largest party in the country, and one of the few openly opposed to Brexit, achieved 19.8%. Labor and conservatives have fallen to 13.7% and 8.9% respectively.There was no need for the European vote to understand that the British government is at the end of the line, but the ballot boxes definitely gave the final push. Theresa May has led the Conservative to the worst result in its history. The Tories have fallen to fifth place, and now it will be necessary to understand who will be their leader after the resignation of the Prime Minister, scheduled for June 7, even if everything points to Boris Johnson. In any case, the rules of the game in the United Kingdom have definitely changed.

InHungary, the party of Viktor Orban records another success, with Fidesz being voted by 52.3% of the voters, a real plebiscite.

In Greece, the party of Premier Tsipras, who led the country through a dramatic economic crisis, comes out defeated by the polls with his party, Syriza, which obtained 23.8% of the votes, while NeaDimokratia, the center-right party won 33.1% of preferences. Tsipras has decided to dissolve the Parliament and convene early elections that will probably be held in the summer, and not at the natural expiry of the legislature in October.

The unique case of Belgium

Elections split Belgium: secession risk seems to divide the country, as Nationalists and extreme- right are very popular in Flanders, while Socialists, extreme-left and Greens win in Wallonia and in Brussels. The only ones of the Union to vote both for the renewal of the European Parliament and for the national one, the Belgians once again divided themselves by respecting the political, linguistic and religious geography that has always separated them. And with the affirmation of the Flemish nationalist forces, the nightmare of secession is back.

TheGreen Party alliance posted its strongest ever performance in European elections, winning 69 seats according to provisional results - a rise from 2014 when they took 50 seats. Much of the party's gains came from northern Europe, including the UK, Ireland, France and Germany, where young people have staged marches calling for political action over climate change. A global force that knows no barriers and seems to gain more and more strength throughout the continent. 

Future alliances

The battle of Europe is now played on appointments. At the end of the informal summit between EU Heads of State to identify a method for choosing both EU Commissioners, and the President of the Commission, two schools of thought are de factoclashing.

French President pushes for the election of the President of the Commission based on the recommendation of the European Council. His words are very clear: "The nomination of the President of the Commission is a responsibility of the Council,the Parliament has to approve it." According to Macron, the candidate who will be designated "will have to respect the different political sensibilities that came out of the European elections, a largerpossible coalition of pro-Europeans, that is, in addition to the Liberals, also the Socialists and the Greens ".

Chancellor Merkel instead supports Weber and the method of the "Spitzenkandidat", the leader of the party that got the most ofvotes, recommended by the parties before the vote. She invited the leaders to accept a road based on mediation: on the appointments to the top of EU institutions "everyone must be tolerant and ready to compromise".

Great Britain will also play a part in this game. Formally, London is still part of the EU and so its vote will be decisive for the choice of the President of the Commission.

Conclusion

The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, intervened at the end of the summit by asking to avoid an institutional confrontation between the Council and the Parliament because no one would be interested. In short, the game has just begun. Five years ago, four summits were needed in three months to designate Juncker as head of the Commission.